I know, I know. It’s been awhile. I get it. And a lot has happened since I wrote about C.J. Anderson. And yes, I’m still low on him.
But just because I haven’t written anything for you fools in a month or two (or three) doesn’t mean I’ve done a complete 180 on my hot fantasy takes. So much has happened in my life recently. Eleven years after I graduated high school, I finally got my bachelor’s degree at the University Of Massachusetts in May. Health Science. Nothing to do with journalism or fantasy football.
Time will tell how smart that decision was.
A week before I walked with cap and gown in Amherst, I hiked up a mountain in Milton and got engaged. Yes, very exciting. The icing on the cake? The fiancé and I took a Eurotrip of sorts that I just got back from on Saturday. Ten days. Bergen (Norway), Prague, and Munich. It was life changing. So what better time to come back refreshed and help you jabronis out than the current? It’s not like the league is at it’s slowest point in the calendar year or anything, but beggars can’t be choosers, right?
Last week, Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll said 2015 rookie Tyler Lockett “is a starting wide receiver for us.” Veteran Jermaine Kearse, whom started over Lockett last season, was re-signed by the team this offseason. The No. 69 pick in the 2015 NFL draft to Seattle, Lockett broke 17 records in college at Kansas State, becoming the schools all-time leading receiver. Not too shabby. He spent all four years in college instead of leaving early, something admirable, but outside of that, what’s the obsession been for over the course of the past week?
In his sophomore season, the Wildcats won the Big 12 Conference title but after that, finished fifth and third in his last two years at the school. “Look at the stats, dummy!” All right. In 2012 — the best year Kansas State had with Lockett on the team — he caught 44 balls for 687 yards and four touchdowns. He also returned two touchdowns as well. Hardly an impact player for the team that ended up winning the conference title as I mentioned. His junior and senior seasons, by comparison, were far better. Eleven touchdowns in back-to-back years but no special teams scores. Having 1,515 yards receiving in his senior season is extremely impressive as well. Back when the 5-foot-10-inch, 182 pound wide receiver was drafted, per Lance Zierlein at NFL.com: “Good play speed…nuanced route runner with ability to sell…” Hmmm, who’s that sound like? More on that later.
The second year wideout made All-Pro as a KR but only started eight of Seattle’s 18 games. Lockett scored six of his seven TD’s after the teams Week 9 bye, including 75 yards and one score in the NFC Championship at Carolina. Pretty good efficiency considering he only had four targets. The seven touchdowns are only on the offensive end, as he added two more to his total through special teams; one punt return and one kick return. What about his counterpart? What about the player whom he’s supposed to take over for even though the team just re-signed him?
Jermaine Kearse scored five times last season but only had 49 receptions for 685 yards. By comparison, America’s darling the past week had two more receptions but 21 yards less. Comparable statistics, right? Kearse scored twice in the playoffs last season, totaling 128 receiving yards; 53 more than Lockett. Rotoworld recently mentioned that Lockett “is a candidate for 1,000-plus yards and eight-plus TDs.” Those statistics about even out when looking at and combining Kearse’s season totals with Lockett’s, but that’s under the guise that Lockett is taking ALL of Kearse’s snaps. That just won’t happen. Oh, right, I write fantasy football, so lets get to that.
Yahoo! has Lockett being drafted No. 90 overall. ESPN? No. 113. CBS is No. 102. All of these positions are somewhat close when looking at the overall draft picture. The consensus when adding up some of these numbers and averaging them out is that Lockett will get drafted in fantasy leagues No. 92 overall. Early tenth round so far. I fully expect, with the hype train off to a roaring start in the past week, for that that ADP to skyrocket. I wouldn’t even remotely be surprised if he ends up going in the early-mid seventh round. I’ve always said whether it’s team need or your love for a player, don’t reach on a guy that hasn’t proven he can do it at the pro level. Whether it’s for a young guy like Lockett, a rookie who hasn’t played yet like Ezekiel Elliot, or a veteran with great upside. Reaching DOES NOT = Championship. In fact, it means the exact opposite.
Now people may call me biased, but consider everything said about Lockett. Great route runner, even better speed, good hands, but small in stature. Do yourselves a favor and draft 2016 fifth rounder and UMass Amherst alum, Tennessee Titans WR Tajae Sharpe. He’ll have an extremely similar role to Lockett and you’ll be able to get him far cheaper. Sharpe led the Nation in receiving yards last season with over 1,300. He only scored five times to Lockett’s 11 in his senior year, but he has a young, exciting, mobile QB throwing him the ball whereas while Russell Wilson has all those intangibles, Seattle is still a run-first offense. Both players SHOULD operate primarily out of the slot, but something tells me they’ll have Lockett on the outside or even catching slant and screen passes. What ex-Seahawk does that sound like? Percy Harvin, anyone?
Now if you read through all that, you’ll be thanking me by the end of the season. Or you’ll be tweeting me wishing death on me. One of the two. There’s no in between with social media these days.